So, my final idea of what happened is not too far from what I said right at the start of it:
I don’t believe any Western powers, CIA/Mossad/etc were involved in bribing Priggy to go AWOL
This was Priggy misreading the situation badly and making a big show of how important he is to the whole war effort as a (stupid) way to try and prevent his company (Wagner PMC) becoming absorbed by the RF MoD. Russian paranoia and strongarm tactics as a bluff to try and get more things going his way.
It certainly looks foolish from the outside looking in, but was it? Wagner was essentially going to be totally absorbed by the RF MoD on July 1st as every one of the mercs would have to sign a document effectively placing them under them. This in practical terms meant Priggy would have had his entire business removed from under him after kicking the combined West’s ass. Hardly a good way to be thanked. Now he got away scot free, no harm, no foul, and extricated himself from the war there, with a guaranteed new sponsor (Luko, Luko, baby! Sorry it’s my Kojak persona coming out!) with placed for at least 8000 of his guys that decide to carry on with him.
Wagner soldiers now have a choice: return to civilian life, join the RF as experienced and welcome veterans, or follow Priggy into Belorussia and/or Africa.
Priggy is, I think, essentially safe. Him dying of Polonium poisoning or having an unfortunate accident would reflect badly on Putin at the moral level. Priggy saved his hide and just enough face to save his hide and his company (if in a reduced size).
The MoD saved face as no ministers were retired/fired/changed.
So, overall, it was a minor internal power-squabble, which was resolved mostly bloodlessly (10 or 15 bodies, total, given the potential for mayhem is, comparatively speaking, “bloodless”. Which of course is no comfort at all to the relatives of the deceseased.)
As a result of it, Putin did not waste any opportunities, and one could argue Russia is in an even stringer position now.
Morale-wise everyone pretty much backed Putin and the motherland, the few who didn’t exposed themselves and will be dealt with accordingly, and the RF MoD is now not only in charge, but has quite a high performance bar to overcome, because regardless of recent events, Wagner did an excellent job of reducing the entire West to a spanked arse, and they did it using mercs and convicts.
All in all, I had some things wrong (it wasn’t a psyops to move troops etc,) but I was still more right than most people who get paid to know these things.
Final Analysis of Fake Russian Non-Coup
So, my final idea of what happened is not too far from what I said right at the start of it:
So, overall, it was a minor internal power-squabble, which was resolved mostly bloodlessly (10 or 15 bodies, total, given the potential for mayhem is, comparatively speaking, “bloodless”. Which of course is no comfort at all to the relatives of the deceseased.)
As a result of it, Putin did not waste any opportunities, and one could argue Russia is in an even stringer position now.
Morale-wise everyone pretty much backed Putin and the motherland, the few who didn’t exposed themselves and will be dealt with accordingly, and the RF MoD is now not only in charge, but has quite a high performance bar to overcome, because regardless of recent events, Wagner did an excellent job of reducing the entire West to a spanked arse, and they did it using mercs and convicts.
All in all, I had some things wrong (it wasn’t a psyops to move troops etc,) but I was still more right than most people who get paid to know these things.
And that’s my final take.
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